Tuesday, January 11, 2005

Pretty good predictions

New years promises must be the worst promises ever. How many of you have really stopped smoking? Predictions, in the other hand, are always interesting.

Sir Cringely comes once again with pretty interesting predictions for the new year in technology business.

Is this the year of online music stores, Long Tail and VoIP?

Is Microsoft finally taking over the gaming entertainment market from Sony? I think it's going to be a tough competition. Nintendo lost their markets to Sony because Squaresoft and Enix changed camps. Did you know, it's forbidden by law to release new sequels to popular game series in Japan expect weekends by those companies because teenagers are skipping school and workers get ill? Japan, as being the hardest gaming market to understand by Microsoft, will be the final frontier.

Is this the time when Sun Microsystems abandons their current strategy? Their current strategy might be a flawed one. Basic economics: smart companies try to commoditize their products' complements. Hardware is a complement of software and vice-versa. By promoting free software they are commodizing software. By promoting Java they are commodizing hardware. Oobs:

"OK, Sun, pop quiz: when the music stops, where are you going to sit down? Without proprietary advantages in hardware or software, you're going to have to take the commodity price, which barely covers the cost of cheap factories in Guadalajara, not your cushy offices in Silicon Valley".
-- Joel on Software


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